Thursday, June 18, 2009

SEC - Ole Miss

Ole Miss
Skinny - Ole Miss was the nation's surprise team last season and I'll admit I didn't see that one coming at all. I've always been a big fan of Houston Nutt and I believed Arkansas made a terrible mistake getting rid of him even with the controversy. Ole Miss is getting a lot of hype in the media after the team ended the season on a 6 game winning streak including a big win in an exciting Cotton Bowl game against Texas Tech. Ole Miss's worst loss last season was by a mere 7 points to South Carolina. The skill players return for the Ole Miss offense, but the offensive line must rebuild after losing three starters. The defense returns a lot of talent especially at defensive end with a problem of having three starters. Jevan Snead proved why transfers can be best for both parties sometimes after leaving Texas in fine position under the guidance of Colt McCoy and also utilizing his talent elsewhere. I believe Ole Miss may lose a game or two they shouldn't this season behind the high expectations. The talent is there and the schedule is relatively easy for an SEC team, but this team is becoming too hyped by the media and I don't know if a team that hasn't had this much success in the past will be able to live up to the expectations. A notable statistic from last season is the fact they were -2 in turnover margin. I believe Ole Miss will end with a similar record as last season.

Strength - Rush Defense
Yes, the team suffers a big loss with Peria Jerry off to the NFL but the team returns 5 of 7 starters up front including a solid core of three defensive ends. The team gave up only 85.5 ypg on the ground, which ranked them fourth in the nation. They also return Greg Hardy who had 8.5 sacks in 9 games last season. The front 7 will have to carry the team and put pressure on the quarterback to relieve the pressure on the secondary, coincidentally the team's weakness. Allen Walker and Jonathan Cornell return at linebacker and Auburn transfer Patrick Trahan should make an impact at the other outside linebacker position and give Ole Miss a very experienced linebacking corps.

Weakness - Pass Defense
On paper it looks good when a team returns 3 of 4 starters at any position. But experience is only as important as how good the players are. The pass defense struggled to a 81st ranking in the country in yards allowed per game, which isn't a good for a team that has expectations for conference championships. As good as the Rebels seemed last season, their only top 20 unit was the rush defense which should be strong again. The three returning starters for the secondary are all seniors, so there should be some leadership/sense of urgency for them and Ole Miss fans better hope they show it.

Key game - 9/24/09 @South Carolina
South Carolina is by no means the strongest team on the schedule (Alabama and LSU), but this is Ole Miss's big road game and its at the beginning of the season, particularly the SEC schedule. South Carolina will have a new offense, but will finally be settled on a quarterback in Stephen Garcia and the young secondary will be battle tested by the time they meet early in the season considering USC opens the schedule with NC State, Georgia, and Florida Atlantic. Ole Miss will be USC's biggest opponent to date, but USC will have played legit teams and garnered great experience in preparation for the game.

Key Player - Jevan Snead
The former star recruit showed last year why he needed to showcase his talents elsewhere rather than sit behind Colt McCoy for several years. Snead's statistics weren't amazing, but it was how he made plays when he had to. Snead's completion percentage was 45% in the Florida game and he only had 99 yards through the air if you take away one completion. It was the fact that he added 86 yards to that total on a touchdown pass to take the lead 31-24. Gaudy statistics are not a bad thing to have, but a clutch performer is what a team needs if they want to win the close games. Snead will need to show this kind of composure in games this year if the Rebels want to live up to expectations. Ole Miss's passing game was only ranked 53rd in the country last year in terms of yardage per game and all four losses, as previously mentioned, were by 7 or fewer points. Snead proved down the stretch last year he could lead his team if they were quick out of the gate with the last 4 games all having a margin of victory of 13 or more, but can he battle through the adversity like he did in a tight game versus Florida consistently?

Impact Freshman - Bobbie Massie

Predicted SEC finish - 2nd (West)

Top 5 Players
1. DE Greg Hardy
2. QB Jevan Snead
3. WR Dexter McCluster
4. FS Kendrick Lewis
5. RT John Jerry

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