Friday, September 25, 2009

Week 4 picks

It wasn't pretty last week, so I need to make some better picks this week. My upset pick of the Golden Gophers looked like it had a chance when it was tied in the fourth, but California ultimately pulled away and won.

Michigan State - Wisconsin
Michigan State has suffered a tough beginning to the season after high expectations for the Big 10 season. Luckily for them the Big 10 season is just beginning. They play an undefeated Badger team in Camp Randall, but look for Michigan State to get back on track after losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. Kirk Cousins looks to be the answer at quarterback, but the big question is who is going to finally step at the running back position. Wisconsin found their quarterback in Tolzien and not Phillips like expected and they'll rely on John Clay and Zach Brown to carry their offense. I'm still not sold on Wisconsin and I think this is an important game for Michigan State and they'll come out strong especially on defense led by Greg Jones.
The Pick - Michigan State

Florida State - South Florida
South Florida caught a major blow to their season. It may be better for them in the long run, but it could hold them back from competing in the Big East this season. Matt Grothe had a probable collegiate career ending injury by tearing his ACL. Florida State looked pathetic against Jacksonville State, but competed admirably with Miami the first week of the season. South Florida has had this date marked on their calendar as they look to establish themselves with the big 3 in Florida, but it won't happen with a redshirt freshman starting for the first time. Look for Florida State to win this game by 15-20.
The Pick - Florida State

Miami - Virginia Tech
The thing that separates these ACC foes right now is the play of the quarterback. Jacory Harris is playing like a Heisman candidate, hitting receivers all over the field with precision, while Tyrod Taylor, a talent running the ball, still hasn't developed that passing aspect of his game. Miami and Virginia Tech are both good on defense, but look for Miami to start to wear down the Virginia Tech defense in the same way Alabama did. Graig Cooper and Ryan Williams provide good support to the quarterbacks in the game. Cooper is a fun player to watch and Williams is doing very well replacing the injured Darren Evans. Playing in Blacksburg should benefit Tech, but remember Miami has had 2 extra days to prepare this game.
The Pick - Miami

Washington - Stanford
Ask most a casual college football fan if they care about the result of the Washington-Stanford game. The majority, if not all the time, you're going to get a resounding "who cares." Well you should care, both teams are 2-1 and while they might not win the Pac-10, they're both teams to watch into the future. Both teams boast solid quarterbacks. The young Andrew Luck is one to watch for the next couple years at Stanford, but the one to watch today is Jake Locker. Locker has provided a spark to a dead program in Washington, returning from last season's injury. Andrew Luck has been efficient in his first few games as the Stanford starter and like Locker is not afraid to pick up a few yards on the ground. Toby Gerhart provides Stanford with the better balance on offense and look for Washington to struggle with the hangover from the USC win.
The Pick - Stanford

Penn State - Iowa
It's sad the nation won't be seeing these two teams at their best when they play in this week's primetime TV slot. Iowa will most likely be missing All-American candidate Bulaga at tackle and Stanzi's top receiving threats DJK (WR) and Moeaki (TE) might not be at full strength. Penn State could be without their own All-American candidate in Sean Lee. Navorro Bowman is still questionable at this point, but most indications are that he'll play. Stupar has an ankle tweak and Mauti has been sidelined for the season with an ACL tear in the preseason. Penn State's linebacking corps is the unit to watch this weekend especially after Bani Gbadyu said on his facebook that he'll be starting this weekend. The situation points to a Penn State victory. It's a home game in primetime, a situation Penn State thrives in and revenge is on the minds of the Nittany Lions. Two interesting things to watch are Penn State's defense and how legit they are and how much damage Ricky Stanzi can do into Penn State's secondary. It should be a close game before Penn State pulls away.
The pick - Penn State

Upset of the Week - Arkansas (@Alabama)
Everything points against the Hogs in this game. The streak of top 5 upsets this season has already been continued this week with Ole Miss and Penn State has a tough game themselves. Arkansas lost this matchup by 35 a season ago and they have to travel to Alabama for the game. There are reasons I believe Arkansas can spring this upset though. Ryan Mallett is the most efficient quarterback in the country right now and think about how many points Arkansas put up on Georgia last week just passing the ball. I truly believe this is the week Arkansas realizes they need to utilize All-SEC back Michael Smith. He only has 102 yards to date this season on the ground but at 8.5 ypc. If Arkansas can get him going and Jarius Wright continues to play well at receiver, Arkansas will put up the points they need to win. Alabama thrives in the run game, not the pass game. Arkansas got beat last week by Joe Cox and right now Cox is better than McElroy. If Arkansas can contain Julio Jones and McElroy and force Alabama to their strength, ironically they'll have the advantage. Arkansas held Samuel to 26 yards on 15 carries last week if you take out a 80 yard dash. Alabama better watch out or this game could go sour and even if they obtain a lead, Mallett can score fast.

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