Saturday, June 27, 2009

SEC - LSU

LSU
Skinny - LSU is a very athletic team with a lot of ability, but potential means nothing if you can't perform up to it. Jordan Jefferson is a very athletic quarterback and had a 4-1 ratio in 2 starts last season but he is still very raw at the position. Brandon LaFell and Charles Scott are both all-conference performers and will be the backbone of the team playing in the skill positions. Keiland Williams offers a solid complementary back to Scott and Terrance Toliver and Rueben Randle were both big time guys in high school with Toliver needing to finally show that potential in his junior season. The defense was less than stellar last season giving up almost 25 ppg, but a lot of players return with experience and the unit should improve if the defensive line can recover from some personnel losses.

Strength - Running Back
Charles Scott will be the premier back in the SEC this season after racking up almost 1200 yards and 18 TDs last season. The strength doesn't stop with the starter either, Keiland Williams provides a solid backup as a senior, Richard Murphy is a fine third back as a junior, and Trindan Holliday is a good situational back with some of the best speed in the country. Scott is a stronger built back while Williams and Holliday provide speed in the nation's fastest conference. The rushing attack only averaged 166.8 yards a game last season and that must improve this year, considering some yards will come thanks to Jefferson, who adds an extra dimension to the passing game with his legs. Mobile quarterbacks usually help inflate rushing statistics, so they must prove how strong they are this year with a line returning three starters including Ciron Black.

Weakness - Pass Defense
The secondary last season struggled in SEC play and new starters were found by the end of the season as LSU began to give more time to the younger players. After gaining jobs during the season last year, CB Patrick Peterson and FS Chad Jones most use their athletic ability to shutdown the passing attacks of the SEC including one's from Florida and Ole Miss. LSU doesn't return any starters that played the whole season last year at linebacker, but all three linebackers started at least 2 games last season and were high on the team's tackle list. Harry Coleman is also playing linebacker this season after starting all 13 games last season at safety. Coleman is a good option at linebacker on third down, providing a de-facto nickleback but remaining in a 4-3 alignment.

Key Game - 10/10/09 Florida
LSU will be coming off a game against Georgia in Athens in a tough back to back non-divisional draw. Playing in Death Valley is usually a tough task for opponents but last season 3 of LSU's 5 losses were at home including two large defeats to Georgia and Ole Miss. Florida is the best team in the country, but this game could be dangerous for the Gators. Jordan Jefferson will have had a month to settle into the offense and remember LSU should be riding high after an impressive finish to last season blowing out Georgia Tech in the bowl game. The end of LSU's schedule features games at Alabama and Ole Miss, but the Tigers won't be able to be in the SEC West race if they can't win some non-divisional games in the SEC versus a tough east schedule.

Key Player - Jordan Jefferson
Jefferson shouldn't be too pressured by Jarrett Lee, last year's starter, after he had a 14/16 TD/INT ratio but incoming freshman Russell Shepard is one of the country's premier quarterback prospects. Shepard had a good spring game throwing for 70 yards on 7 of 12 passing with 16 rushing yards, but Jefferson looked almost flawless for the Tigers going 8-10. If Jefferson can perform like he did in the scrimmage during the season, LSU could have a really really good offense, as the running back and receiver positions are stock-piled with talent. If he's not up to par, LSU will have an okay season and could possibly switch to Shepard and groom him for the future. Jefferson can either earn his position for the next three years or resort to a career on the bench if Shepard beats him out.

Key Freshman - Craig Loston

Predicted SEC finish - 3rd (West)

Top 5 Players
1. RB Charles Scott
2. WR Brandon LaFell
3. T Ciron Black
4. DE Rahim Alem
5. DT Charles Alexander

Thursday, June 25, 2009

SEC - Georgia

Georgia
Skinny - Even though first place in the East should be locked down this year by Florida, placement in the rest of the division is very much up for grabs. Georgia had a less than stellar year last season after having a very highly touted team. Stafford and Moreno are gone and Georgia must rebuild their offense around AJ Green, who had himself a very productive freshman year and will become a true star this season if he has a quarterback to throw it to him. Caleb King was a highly regarded recruit a couple years ago and looks to replace Moreno, but he should be challenged by another highly regarded former recruit in Richard Samuel. Georgia really needs a quarterback to show up and fast as they play Oklahoma State in the season opener at Oklahoma State. I don't expect Georgia to win this game as they adjust to a new offense and Oklahoma State has an offensive machine, but the team needs to learn from whatever happens in the game and use it the next week in a conference rivalry game against South Carolina.

Strengh - Front 7
5 of 7 starters return with only one defensive end position seeing a new starter. I'm counting Jeff Owens as half a returning starter and Darryl Gamble as a half a starter too. Owens would have been a starter and a good one last year if not handicapped by injury and Gamble had 6 starts last season, so the experience is clearly there. Rennie Curran is the team's returning leading tackler with 115 and the depth at linebacker should be good and an injury should not be too devastating. Marcus Washington will be solid as a backup returning from an injury season and Marcus Dowtin has potential after getting 17 tackles as a true freshman. The defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Jeff Owens should be one of the premier tandems in the conference and should allow the linebackers to make plays and Atkins had 7.5 sacks two years ago, impressive for an interior lineman. Battle and Dobbs at defensive end need to step up the production to make this a scary unit.

Weakness - Quarterback
All three quarterbacks in contention for the job were respected coming out of high school, but its not high school anymore. Joe Cox has one last chance to play up to his potential, but he hasn't played to well the last couple years when I saw him in spot duty and I don't expect him to follow very well in the footsteps of Stafford, Shockley, and Greene. If he can't handle the position, Georgia will have to turn to freshmen. The freshmen, Aaron Murray, Logan Gray, and Zach Mettenberger, are all high potential players but there is always a bit of a learning curve when a freshman quarterback takes the reigns in the SEC. Murray, Mettenberger, and Gray all have ability and its obvious in the games I watched them play in all star games and the spring game, but both seem raw at the same time and trying to challenge Florida would be require a herculean type effort from one of them.

Key Game - 9/12/09 South Carolina
The Bulldogs are either going to be on a high by knocking off a highly regarded Oklahoma State team or a low with an opening season loss. The Bulldogs must gather their emotions and play a rivalry game that always has a close margin of victory. The new quarterback and running back won't have much time to get used to the game as the first 5 games are @Oklahoma State, South Carolina, @ an improved Arkansas, Arizona State, and LSU. The schedule could be disastrous for Georgia if the team doesn't come together and they must play well in the opening games.

Key Player - Joe Cox
Cox was a good high school player and was expected to compete for the job a few years ago but lost out to Stafford. Cox is in prime position to lock down the job as his competition is a redshirt freshman and two true freshman. Cox has some game experience, but not as much as Coach Richt would have liked. Cox had good statistics last season, but only in a minimal 15 attempts which isn't truly indicative of anything. Cox doesn't have the luxury of a proven game, but he does have a star receiver in AJ Green that should bail him out in certain situations. If Cox becomes a serviceable quarterback and the defense regains what they lost last season, the team could be good but probably not good enough to compete with Florida.

Impact Freshman - Marlon Brown

Predicted SEC finish - 2nd (SEC East)

Top 5 Players
1. WR AJ Green
2. RT Clint Boling
3. LB Rennie Curran
4. DT Geno Atkins
5. SS Reshad Jones

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Preview Review (so far)

So I've almost done 1/3 of my previews so I thought I'd take a step back and look at the predictions I have so far in each conference.

SEC
East
1. Florida
West
1. Alabama
2. Ole Miss

Big Ten
1. Penn State
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan State
4. Iowa

Big 12
North
1. Kansas
South
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma State
4. Baylor

Pac-10
1. USC
2. Oregon
3. California

ACC
Coastal
1. Georgia Tech
2. Virginia Tech
Atlantic
1. Clemson

Big East
N/A

Reminder - These predictions anticipate divisional finish and not how good the team necessarily is. Here's a very early top 10 that I hold the right to change as I continue with the previews and the development of my top 25 and All-Conference teams for the upcoming season. The top 25 teams on the other hand do reflect who I think are the best teams.

1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. Oklahoma State
6. USC
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Oregon
10. California

Big Ten - Iowa

Iowa
Skinny - If I were to do a power poll on the Big Ten Conference there is no doubt in my mind that the Iowa Hawkeyes would 3 behind Penn State and Ohio State. The problem is they have several tough away games this season and Michigan State doesn't even play Ohio State. Had Shonn Greene not left for the NFL, this team may be competing for a Big Ten title, but than again if he never became what he did last year would Iowa have become such a good team. Don't let the record fool you (9-4), the Hawkeyes were not a team someone wanted to play at the end of the season. Iowa won 6 of their final 7, similar to an Ole Miss story, including a win over a top 5 team (Penn State) and completely dominated their SEC bowl opponent (South Carolina). Iowa ranked 5th in scoring defense and 12th in total defense and return 8 of 11 starters. The only problem on defense is they lost the heart and soul in Matt Kroul and Mitch King, two highly regarded defensive tackles. Ricky Stanzi secured the quarterback job relatively early in the season and only improved as the year went on. On paper Iowa may not be the most intimidating, but they are a legit contender and should be taken lightly.

Strength - Linebackers
Senior middle backer Pat Angerer led the team in tackles last season with 107, Jeremiah Hunter has the potential to become a star on the outside and could a potential breakout player this season, and AJ Edds has been a staple of consistency. Although they won't be playing behing Kroul and King the two ends return and the rush defense should still finish in the top twenty, especially with the Draft and graduation of many of the league's top backs. Jeremiah Hunter was highly regarded a few years ago and I remember (being a Penn State fan and wanting Hunter) paying attention to Hunter. I really wanted to see Hunter in the Blue and White and kept wondering what the appeal of Iowa was. Well the team has definitely improved and could be legit contenders.

Weakness - Starpower
Shonn Greene wasn't the most dynamic back, but he racked up some serious yards and was always keyed on by the defense. Mitch King was 2nd team All-American last season and his presence was enough to tell he was a star and the heart and soul of the defense. Its hard for a defensive tackle to standout, but he did consistently and wreaked havoc against Penn State, a line that boasted several All-Big 10 players and two draft picks. Matt Kroul was King's complement and he is also gone. Stanzi should be a solid quarterback, but I don't think he'll reach the status of a player like Drew Tate. Iowa is a very good team and should thrive in a conference that lacks starpower as a whole, but to become an elite team somebody must step up to fill the shoes of the departed.

Key Game - 10/24/09 @Michigan State
Iowa's biggest loss last season was by 5 points. Iowa was 12 points from being an undefeated team, but it should be noted three of the four losses were on the road. Iowa will be doing some traveling this season, as they travel to Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Winning at the Beav in a revenge game or in the Shoe would be considered a stretch and is possible, but a win in East Lansing is a reasonable task. This will be a battle of teams trying to overcome the loss of a load-carrying back and it could help shape up the Big Ten standings.

Key Player - Ricky Stanzi
Stanzi looked better as the season went on last season and Iowa looked almost unbeatable down the stretch. The big question is how much of that success was a result of the defense and Greene? A quarterback's job is always easier when the running game is finding success, as the defense begins to push up and more holes can be found in the secondary. Stanzi has the job to himself this year and won't have to beat out a player like Christensen this season. Stanzi only had a 14/9 TD-INT ratio which needs to be improved, but he does have his favorite target Derrell Johnson-Koulianos back which should ease the pressure. Watching Stanzi he seems to have the moxie a good QB needs and he makes the best of his situation.

Impact Freshman - Keenan Davis

Predicted Big 10 finish - 4th

Top 5 Players
1. LT Bryan Bulaga
2. LB Pat Angerer
3. SS Tyler Sash
4. LB Jeremiha Hunter
5. QB Ricky Stanzi

Big Ten - Michigan State

Michigan State
Skinny - I've been thinking really hard about the Big Ten for a few weeks now if its not obvious considering my first two previews were Big Ten teams than I abruptly left the conference and worked through other ones. Michigan State, Iowa, and Illinois all have similar situations with new running backs. Michigan State loses the most valuable player in Javon Ringer, but they ended up being the team I think will finish third in the conference. Its important to remember this is positioning predictions, not necessarily power polls. Michigan State has one clear advantage over the other two; they don't have to play Ohio State. In a weak conference that is also very tiered in terms of team abilities, games like this being left off the schedule could make that difference. I believe Michigan State will be a very good team next year, but this will be more of a building for the future year. Hoyer and Ringer both have to be replaced, but the two quarterbacks battling for the position (Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol, both sophomores) have a lot more potential than Hoyer and should be very good in the future. Split snaps is very possible, but regardless whoever gets to start they'll have an experienced left side of the line blocking for them.

Strength - Greg Jones
Jones leads an experienced linebacking corps into the season. All three starters return from last season, but the junior backer Jones returns after recording 127 tackles in his sophomore season including a very solid 80 solo. The secondary is very experienced only losing Otis Wiley from last season, so the unit should be improved. The defensive line needs to put more pressure on the lineman and allow the linebackers, especially Jones control the line of scrimmage. The team only ranked 67th in rush defense last season, but they did play some pretty good backs including Jahvid Best, Shonn Greene, Beanie Wells, Knowshon Moreno, and Evan Royster. Those four backs are all considered All-American or at the least All-Conference players. The only back out of the five Michigan State has to play this year will be Royster, so expect the defense to put up better stats regardless if they actually improve.

Weakness - Right Side of the Offense Line
Both starters must be replaced on the right side of the offensive line. Jared McGaha appears to be the favorite at right guard and J'Michael Deane at right tackle. The problem is in their three years of combined experience (not counting redshirt years) they have a total of three games of experience and none were starts. I know I say this a lot, but it's true; experience on the offensive line is critical not only to get better but to learn habits of your linemates. Running backs can come in and do their own thing but lineman must communicate and work together when defenses do things such as stunting. Adjustments are critical.

Key Game - 10/10/09 @Illinois
If Michigan State could pull this game off in Champaign, they would have a very good chance at a Big Ten Championship run. By not playing Ohio State and playing Penn State in the finale, Michigan State should have a clear picture of the Big Ten race and their position the entire season and winning this game would put them in prime position. Michigan State matches up well considering their speed at the linebacking unit, a good defensive end in Trevor Anderson to contain Juice Williams, and a secondary that has played Williams before.

Key Player - Ashton Leggett
Look for Leggett to secure the starting role after the graduation of Javon Ringer. Leggett is more in the mold of Ringer than the other possible replacement of Andre Anderson, who is the returning leading rusher (he did not eclipse 100 yards though). Michigan State thrives with a back that can grind it out and carry a large load and Anderson may not fit the description but he could find a good role as a complement and pull in about 400 yards. Leggett must be able to take a Big Ten beating himself if Sparty is going to be successful. A new quarterback doesn't make a job easier usually, but the pressure on the quarterback may be larger as whoever takes the role is expected to be better than Hoyer. If Leggett doesn't work look for Michigan State to turn to either Baker or Caper, both true freshman.

Impact Freshman - Edwin Baker

Predicted Big 10 finish - 3rd

Top 5 Players
1. LB Greg Jones
2. K Brett Swenson
3. DE Trevor Anderson
4. LB Eric Gordon
5. C Joel Nitchman

Monday, June 22, 2009

ACC - Clemson

Clemson
Skinny - The ACC is traditionally one of the hardest conferences to predict, especially the Atlantic division. I'm not sold on Christian Ponder for Florida State and behind Clemson's defense I'll give the early advantage. Not playing Alabama to start the season is a good thing for the Tigers as they break in a new quarterback, which Kyle Parker seems to have an edge over Willy Korn at the moment. A strong case for Florida State supporters is that their entire line remains intact, well so does Clemson's which is always a good foundation in terms of team chemistry. Although the passing game will be inexperienced with only Jacoby Ford returning, the running game should be solid behind a lighter Jamie Harper and CJ Spiller. The defense will again be strong and DaQuan Bowers has the potential to become a star this season. While Bowers will get the hype, I've always been a fan of the play of Ricky Sapp. Sapp, if fully recovered from an ACL tear, has good speed off the edge and is overall fun to watch. Clemson has a lot of potential if the quarterback situation takes care of its self, but recent history shows Clemson struggles with reaching its potential. Dabo has the opportunity to start his own legacy this season and if the team comes together, they could finish in the top 10 or sputter to another mediocre, disappointing season.

Strength - Defensive End
DaQuan Bowers is only a sophomore this season and has star written all over him. He's a physical specimen and a monster on the line, but its the depth at the position that makes this a Clemson strength. Sapp is an exciting player to watch from the opposite end, and even if he hasn't fully healed from last season's injury Keith Alexander will be ready to step in. Alexander had 34 tackles last season as a starter for most of the season. Malliciah Goodman is waiting in the wings for his opportunity, but it may not need to come this season. Even with all the talent the team had at end and tackle last season, they only finished 36th in rush defense and only yielded 14 sacks as a team last season. They need to improve on those numbers and they should with a more experienced linebacking corps this season.

Weakness - Quarterback
Cullen Harper was expected to be bigtime last season after a stellar junior season, but that season just didn't happen. He looked less comfortable last season and never seemed to find it. Neither did backup Willy Korn when he came in. Korn was highly touted coming out of Byrnes and is in third season in the program. It's time for him to prove his worth or be labeled as a bust and through spring practice it looks like he is getting outplayed in the quarterback battle by a multi-talented baseball player Kyle Parker. The two had similar statistics in the spring game with Parker having slightly more yards and a better completion percentage. Swinney said the battle will continue into the summer and freshman Tajh Boyd could be thrown in the mix, but preferably for Clemson fans Boyd needs a year in the system to learn the playbook instead of being thrown into the firepit, especially with the pressure surrounding the quarterback position after last year and Harper and dating back to Proctor a couple years ago.

Key Game - @Georgia Tech 9/10/09
Not only does Clemson have to play two games in 5 days but they have to travel to Atlanta for the second one. Clemson really needs to set the tone early in the ACC season with a victory to gain some confidence as they have games in succession after this game versus BC, TCU, Maryland, WF, and Miami before a break against Coastal Carolina. The team doesn't need to kill itself against Middle Tennessee but getting the starting quarterback experience in that game will be vital before the Georgia Tech game. Swinney should have some interesting decisions on when to pull the starters in the opening game.

Key Player - Xavier Dye
Dye needs to step up at receiver and help the quarterback, whoever it ends up being. Jacoby Ford is the only proven returning receiver and thats not good for a team with an unstable quarterback situation. Dye was a bigtime recruit, who's better known for his transfer to Byrnes his senior year in high school. He had two starts last year and 10 catches for 125 yards. If he can't become the receiver he needs to look for Clemson to resort to true freshman Bryce McNeal as a complement to Ford.

Impact Freshman - Bryce McNeal

Predicted ACC Finish - 1st (Atlantic)

Top 5 Players
1. C Thomas Austin
2. RB CJ Spiller
3. DE DaQuan Bowers
4. CB Chris Chancellor
5. DE Ricky Sapp

Pac 10 - California

Cal
Skinny - California returns one of the nation's best running backs in Jahvid Best. Best proved his name as he rushed for 1580/15 and he wasn't even playing pull strength for parts of the season. Cal loses two All Pac 10 first teamers from last season (Alex Mack and Zack Follett), but they also return two in Best and CB Syd'Quan Thompson. Playing a 3-4 defense Cal returns the entire defensive line and secondary, but will have to find 3 replacements at linebacker including someone to replace Follett. The team should boast one of the strongest rushing attacks in the nation behind Best, but there is some uncertainty on the offensive line and at quarterback. The line must replace two starters including Mack, but the bigger issue is if Kevin Riley can finally secure the quarterback position to himself. The schedule is top heavy with two BCS school non-conference matchups in three weeks followed by trip to Oregon and a visit by USC. If Cal can get through this stretch 4-1 it would be a success and running the table from there is very possible. The question is though, if Cal struggles at the beginning of the year will the train derail? Hypothetically they should beat Minnesota on September 19, but Minnesota is a long plane ride and could show some signs of lag. Keep in mind California lost last year in a trip to Maryland and all four of their losses were on the road.

Strength - Jahvid Best
Best emerged last year as a dominant back as a sophomore and playing a full season injury free, he has a real chance at eclipsing 2000 yards and being mentioned in the Heisman race alongside the quarterbacks. Even though Best rushed for almost 1600 yards last season, California only ranked 29th in the country in rushing ypg, so somebody needs to step up and complement Best. Best runs behind a line with plenty of experience, but will it take a step back without Alex Mack or will the play of the three returners overshadow the loss? In either case, Best's numbers shouldn't change based on line play. Best can only hope added stability at the quarterback position and the return of the wide receivers will add a more rounded attack, taking the pressure off himself. Best should compete for All-American honors and truly burst onto the national scene this year.

Weakness - Linebacker experience
Linebackers play a pivotal role on the defense, considering there are four of them since Cal runs a 3-4 base defense. Zack Follett is gone and only outside backer Eddie Young returns, but Michael Mohamed could count as a returning starter considering the number of snaps he played last season and that he is the teams leading returning tackler with 87 and 51 being solo. Mychal Kendricks, Devin Bishop, Jarred Price, and Ryan Davis should compete for the remaining two spots. Price, Davis, and Jerome Meadows are all JUCO transfers showing Cal's need for immediate linebacker help. The rest of the defense returns and is very strong, so this unit should dictate just how good the defense can be.

Key Game - @Oregon 9/26/09
Coming off a long trip to Minnesota, the Golden Bears may have a little bit of a hangover from the previous weeks trip, but they can't if they want to win in the zoo. Cal struggled on the road last season and they have two defining trips in the first four weeks this season. Cal also can't look ahead to the following week with the big game against USC. This is the hump game in the tough three game stretch considering not only team strength but also scheduling difficulty.

Key Player - Kevin Riley
Riley had a nice 14/6 TD-INT ratio last season but he had to split time with Nate Longshore and never really had the job locked down to himself. Longshore is gone and now is his chance to seize the reigns. He returns his receiving corps so hopefully some chemistry has been built up. The team only ranked 83 in the nation in pass offense last season, but to their credit the passing game is big in the turnover margin which Cal ranked 7th in the nation in. Riley shouldn't have to worry about splitting time unless he really sputters, so he must seize the opportunity to help take pressure off Best.

Impact Freshman - Deandre Coleman

Predicted Pac-10 finish - 3rd

Top 5 Players
1. RB Jahvid Best
2. CB Syd'Quan Thompson
3. DE Tyson Alualu
4. LB Michael Mohamed
5. P Bryan Anger

Friday, June 19, 2009

Big 12 - Baylor

Baylor
Skinny - You want a surprise team? Well here you go, meet the Baylor Bears and get familiar with the name. Art Briles has Baylor heading in the right direction and behind Robert Griffin, sophomore QB, expect the team to take another step this year and a rather big one. Their record might not be stellar this season, but there impact should be. Baylor starts the season at Wake Forest and than plays UConn. Realistically winning one of those games would be positive for the Bears, but I expect them to take both and than beat the two featherweight teams before traveling to Oklahoma. The Big 12 South is absolutely stacked, but the Bears should be good for 4th or 5th and I full-heartedly expect 4th and we all remember how good Oklahoma State looked last year in the fourth place roll.

Strength - Robert Griffen
Griffen is the real deal and looked like a slightly more mobile version of the junior year Troy Smith. Not bad company to keep as Troy Smith is a former Heisman trophy winner. Baylor was only 92nd in the country in passing yards last season but look for that number to improve as Griffen should be more comfortable to second time around and he's a very efficient quarterback with a 15-3 TD/INT ratio. Griffen's passing efficiency is second to his running ability though, as he racked up over 800 yards on the ground last season with 13 TD runs giving him 28 total TDs as a freshman, not too shabby. 3 of Griffen's 4 top receivers return from last season, so the chemistry should be there. Griffen will also has his top ball carrier back, so although the offensive line must rebuild after losing Jason Smith to the NFL the offense should be solid.

Weakness - Cornerbacks
Its always a nice thing to have your leading interception man returning coming off a 6-pick season, the only catch though is that he is the middle linebacker. The Bears return all 3 linebackers, should have a dominant force at defensive tackle, and return two solid safeties. The middle is fine for defensive coordinator Brian Norwood, but the corner situation is a little scary. The pass defense ranked 103rd in the nation and its not expected to be top 20 with the schedule they play, but the team gave up 40+ points on three occasions and were 87th in the nation in scoring defense, which is not something that'll win you games. Luckily for the Bears they are a very good team when it comes to turnovers, ranking 4th in the nation in turnover margin. Tim Atchison, Antareis Bryan, Trentson Hill, Clifton Odom, and Dominique Criss must step up and play at least a decent corner position in a pass-happy league. Luckily for them Maclin and Crabtree are gone, unfortunately Dez Bryant and Jordan Shipley aren't.

Key Game - 9/5/09 @Wake Forest
A win over an okay Wake Forest team would set a good tone for the season for the Baylor Bears. Going 4-0 in the non-conference schedule would be huge heading into Big 12 play. Although Oklahoma would be an arduous task, Iowa State should be an easy win and heading into the Oklahoma State game 5-1 may give the Bears the confidence they need to spring the upset and really mess up the national picture.

Key Player - Phil Taylor
The ex-Penn State player was part of a big DT class for the Nittany Lions. In his freshman season, he clearly separated himself from the pack which includes All-Big Ten 1st teamer Jared Odrick in terms of potential. He's huge and takes up space well and playing under former Penn State coach Brian Norwood he's been in the same type of system for his entire college career and knows what's expected of him. Taylor has been making headlines for Baylor and he hasn't even played a snap yet, but if he truly can open up the defense and let Pawelek rome free in the middle, Baylor could have a legit defense.

Impact Freshman - Darius Jones

Projected Big 12 finish - 4th (South)

Top 5 Players
1. QB Robert Griffen
2. LB Joe Pawelek
3. DT Phil Taylor
4. P Derek Epperson
5. WR Kendall Wright

Pac 10 - Oregon

Oregon
Skinny - On paper Oregon and California are really similar, but I think in the end Oregon has the better balance and overall better team. Jeremiah Masoli returns as quarterback for the Ducks and could blossom into the league's premier quarterback this season considering his head coach Chip Kelly has a thing with blossoming quarterbacks. LaGarrette Blount returns at running back to give balance to Masoli, a dual-threat quarterback. The team loses three first team All Pac 10 players in Chung, Unger, and Reed but those shoes will be filled in by other players. Defensive end Will Tukuafu becomes the premier defensive lineman this season after accumulating 7.5 sacks last season. The pass defense was in the bottom ten in the nation, but the talent is there for the team to improve on that statistic, but it might not even be that much of a factor if the Oregon scoring machine rolls like it was in the last few games last season scoring the following in the last four games: 35, 55, 65, and 42.

Strength - Jeremiah Masoli
Despite the hype that will follow Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy, the best statistics and play by a quarterback this season could very well be Masoli. Masoli had 1744 yards throught the air last season (13-5 TD/INT) and 718/10 on the ground in only 12 games last season. After watching what Masoli can do a defense and how the defense has to work to contain him, I expect him to absolutely blow up this season. I expect a legitimate shot for the Heisman from Masoli and believe if the line can come together for Oregon this team may have what it takes to beat USC out for the league title. Masoli isn't going to be touted as the greatest passer, but he did end the year with 3 big games through the air against respectable teams in Arizona, Oregon State, and Oklahoma State. Masoli runs a 4.5 according to his scout.com profile and definitely looks the role. He also runs like a bull. Watch This

Weakness - Offensive Line
The team lost its cornerstone on offense losing Max Unger to the NFL. Bo Thran and C.E. Kaiser return as starters for the Ducks, but the other three spots are open. Jordan Holmes should be able to take over the center role after backing up Unger last season and playing in every game including starting 4. Mark Asper seems to be the consensus pick for one guard spot, while freshman Carson York seems to lead for the other. The offensive line doesn't have to be spectacular, but they have to be good enough to allow last year's second ranked running offense continue to push down team's throats and keep the high octane offense at the end of the season running on all cylinders.

Key Game - 9/26/09 California
Oregon has a big advantage in this game considering California has to come to the zoo in a rematch from last season when Oregon was limited to 16 points by the Golden Bears. This is a big game for Oregon coming off a tough opening stretch against Boise State, Purdue, and Utah. Luckily for Oregon, all these games are home. (On a side note, every person in the country should give credit to Oregon for scheduling this kind of schedule. Purdue is the worst non-conference team, how many teams can honestly say that?). Oregon will get a break after this game before a marquee matchup with USC four weeks later.

Key Player - Jeff Maehl
Maehl caught 39 passes for 421/5 last year, which isn't a bad season especially as a sophomore, but someone needs to step up at wide receiver and allow Masoli to develop a strong passing attack to become a dual threat and become more like Vince Young. If the passing game improves on their 67th ranking last season, they could make some serious competition with Oklahoma for the best attack in the land. They were ranked 7th in both total yards and scoring last season, which is pretty darn good considering most of the time when teams are high on the offensive side they're battling against weaker conference teams.

Impact Freshman - Jackson Rice

Predicted Pac-10 finish - 2nd

Top 5 Players
1. QB Jeremiah Masoli
2. DE Will Tukuafu
3. RB LaGarrette Blount
4. TE Ed Dickson
5. CB Walter Thurmond III

Big 12 - Kansas

Kansas
Skinny - Kansas is one team I expect to sneak up on people this season and they'll make my list of potential surprise teams. Kansas will overshadowed by the Big Three in the South, but the core of their team from last returns including Dezmon Briscoe and Todd Reesing. Kansas shocked the nation two years ago, but faded back a step last season but not to the bottom where they've been. They finished 8-5 and the losses were to USF, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. USF is replaced by Southern Miss, which should provide a win. While Texas Tech is on the road, Tech has lost the main components of the offense that dominated the Jayhawks a year ago. Oklahoma and Texas will still be difficult games, but anything can happen in college football. Within the division, Missouri loses a lot of offensive firepower and the game with Nebraska is at home this year and Nebraska is looking for a quarterback and a new linebacking unit. Kansas could realistically win 10 games in the regular season and make the Big 12 title game.

Strength - Passing Game
The return of Todd Reesing, Kerry Meier, and Dezmon Briscoe is huge for the Jayhawks and scoring should not be a problem through the air for the Jayhawks. Briscoe and Meier almost combined for 2500 yards receiving last season and the two are only more experienced this year. Meier is getting more accustomed to the wide receiver position, while Briscoe still has more potential to tap entering his junior season. Reesing watched the two completely different paths the two senior quarterbacks in the Big 12 spotlight last season fared. Chase Daniel went from a Heisman candidate to a middle of the conference quarterback, while Harrell thrived and led Texas Tech to a big season and 11 regular season wins. Reesing's statistics weren't all that hyped last season with the Harrell/McCoy/Bradford talk. Although he threw 13 picks, he threw for 3,888 yards and 32 TDs. Those aren't measly numbers and he returns all three receivers and his running back Jake Sharp to reduce the pressure on him.

Weakness - Pass Defense
The unit ranked 114th in the nation last season in pass defense. Thats a pretty horendous stat, but it is to be noted Kansas played the following quarterbacks: Grothe, Bradford, Harrell, McCoy, and Daniel. Grothe, Harrell, and Daniel are all gone (at least off the schedule) and several other teams are starting new quarterbacks this season in the Big 12 including Kansas State and Nebraska. Darrell Stuckey led the team with 5 picks last season and was second team All Big 12 last season and may be first team this season. Justin Thornton and Philip Strozier also return for the Jayhawks in the secondary and should be aided by the experience from last season. The numbers will improve for the Jayhawks with the easier schedule, especially in the passing categories but they need to prove they can at least give the offense a chance in the big games against teams like Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Key Game - 11/14/09 Nebraska
Without a doubt this is the big game for both teams. Nebraska and Missouri should be the clear favorites in the North. Nebraska gets the easier road in the schedule avoiding Texas, but the have a dangerous game versus Baylor, who could surprise people this season and make a similar, but lesser impact of the way Oklahoma State did last season behind Robert Griffen. Even if the two teams only lose to Texas and Oklahoma, the tiebreaker would be this game for the trip to the Championship. The difference in this division and game may ultimately come down to QB and in the preseason Kansas has the clear advantage.

Key Player - Todd Reesing
There are a bunch of players more important to the team's success this season, but the play of Reesing will be impactful particulary in the big games. Reesing fell a little more under the radar last season but still had very good stats. Kansas was 2-2 last season in games decided by 10 or fewer points and this is where quarterback play could dictate a game, especially in a league dominated by shootouts. Reesing may have a new line, but he returns his receivers and his running back and should be comfortable on his options. Reesing has the chance to take the road of Graham Harrell or the road of Chase Daniel. All three had have big time receivers (Briscoe, Maclin, and Crabtree), but Harrell stepped up while Daniel fell back. Kansas won't have the best defense, but it should be improved from last season and allow Kansas to at least have a chance to win games.

Impact Freshman - Prinz Kande

Predicted Big 12 finish - 1st (North)

Top 5 Players
1. WR Dezmon Briscoe
2. QB Todd Reesing
3. SS Darrell Stuckey
4. DE Jake Laptad
5. WR/QB Kerry Meier

Thursday, June 18, 2009

SEC - Ole Miss

Ole Miss
Skinny - Ole Miss was the nation's surprise team last season and I'll admit I didn't see that one coming at all. I've always been a big fan of Houston Nutt and I believed Arkansas made a terrible mistake getting rid of him even with the controversy. Ole Miss is getting a lot of hype in the media after the team ended the season on a 6 game winning streak including a big win in an exciting Cotton Bowl game against Texas Tech. Ole Miss's worst loss last season was by a mere 7 points to South Carolina. The skill players return for the Ole Miss offense, but the offensive line must rebuild after losing three starters. The defense returns a lot of talent especially at defensive end with a problem of having three starters. Jevan Snead proved why transfers can be best for both parties sometimes after leaving Texas in fine position under the guidance of Colt McCoy and also utilizing his talent elsewhere. I believe Ole Miss may lose a game or two they shouldn't this season behind the high expectations. The talent is there and the schedule is relatively easy for an SEC team, but this team is becoming too hyped by the media and I don't know if a team that hasn't had this much success in the past will be able to live up to the expectations. A notable statistic from last season is the fact they were -2 in turnover margin. I believe Ole Miss will end with a similar record as last season.

Strength - Rush Defense
Yes, the team suffers a big loss with Peria Jerry off to the NFL but the team returns 5 of 7 starters up front including a solid core of three defensive ends. The team gave up only 85.5 ypg on the ground, which ranked them fourth in the nation. They also return Greg Hardy who had 8.5 sacks in 9 games last season. The front 7 will have to carry the team and put pressure on the quarterback to relieve the pressure on the secondary, coincidentally the team's weakness. Allen Walker and Jonathan Cornell return at linebacker and Auburn transfer Patrick Trahan should make an impact at the other outside linebacker position and give Ole Miss a very experienced linebacking corps.

Weakness - Pass Defense
On paper it looks good when a team returns 3 of 4 starters at any position. But experience is only as important as how good the players are. The pass defense struggled to a 81st ranking in the country in yards allowed per game, which isn't a good for a team that has expectations for conference championships. As good as the Rebels seemed last season, their only top 20 unit was the rush defense which should be strong again. The three returning starters for the secondary are all seniors, so there should be some leadership/sense of urgency for them and Ole Miss fans better hope they show it.

Key game - 9/24/09 @South Carolina
South Carolina is by no means the strongest team on the schedule (Alabama and LSU), but this is Ole Miss's big road game and its at the beginning of the season, particularly the SEC schedule. South Carolina will have a new offense, but will finally be settled on a quarterback in Stephen Garcia and the young secondary will be battle tested by the time they meet early in the season considering USC opens the schedule with NC State, Georgia, and Florida Atlantic. Ole Miss will be USC's biggest opponent to date, but USC will have played legit teams and garnered great experience in preparation for the game.

Key Player - Jevan Snead
The former star recruit showed last year why he needed to showcase his talents elsewhere rather than sit behind Colt McCoy for several years. Snead's statistics weren't amazing, but it was how he made plays when he had to. Snead's completion percentage was 45% in the Florida game and he only had 99 yards through the air if you take away one completion. It was the fact that he added 86 yards to that total on a touchdown pass to take the lead 31-24. Gaudy statistics are not a bad thing to have, but a clutch performer is what a team needs if they want to win the close games. Snead will need to show this kind of composure in games this year if the Rebels want to live up to expectations. Ole Miss's passing game was only ranked 53rd in the country last year in terms of yardage per game and all four losses, as previously mentioned, were by 7 or fewer points. Snead proved down the stretch last year he could lead his team if they were quick out of the gate with the last 4 games all having a margin of victory of 13 or more, but can he battle through the adversity like he did in a tight game versus Florida consistently?

Impact Freshman - Bobbie Massie

Predicted SEC finish - 2nd (West)

Top 5 Players
1. DE Greg Hardy
2. QB Jevan Snead
3. WR Dexter McCluster
4. FS Kendrick Lewis
5. RT John Jerry

Monday, June 15, 2009

ACC - Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech
Skinny - Tyrod Taylor finally takes full control of the Hokies this season after two years of splitting time with Sean Glennon. Taylor's potential is limitless as he is a stong, fast dual-threat quarterback. The question for Taylor now is his throwing ability. Will the Hokies' passing game be strong enough to compete for an ACC Championship or will it be their downfall? First team All-ACC RB Darren Evans returns after a very good freshman year with 1265/11 on the ground and should only improve in his second season. As always Virginia Tech's defense will be what allows the team to compete for championships. Macho Harris is gone, but the rest of the secondary returns and Jason Worilds has first team All-ACC potential at defensive end. Virginia Tech is a team that thrives on its defense and special teams, but the potential for the offense is high if a passing game develops.

Strength - Defensive Line
Three starters return on the defensive line with valuable depth. Jason Worilds was second team All-ACC last year with 8 sacks as a sophomore. Cordarrow Thompson, Demetrius Taylor, and Kwamaine Battle should provide solid depth in the middle with Thompson returning last year and the other starter John Graves moving to end to give a spot to Taylor. Virginia Tech ranked 9th in scoring defense and 14th in rushing defense last year. Cam Martin is the only returning linebacker, so to maintain that ranking the defensive line needs to continue what they started last season. The Hokies only had 19 sacks last season, so that number needs to improve and it should as there's more experience on the inside opening up holes for the defensive ends and linbackers.

Weakness - Passing Game
Splitting time as a quarterback is not an easy thing to do, as it limits a quarterback from getting in a rhythm but the TD-INT ratio Tyrod Taylor had last year was unacceptable. He threw only two TD passes to seven interceptions. One could put part of the blame on the wide receivers though. The team returns its top 4 receivers (WR Jarrett Boykin, Danny Coale, and Dyrell Roberts and TE Greg Boone), but the production from the three sophomore WRs is less than desirable. Boykin led the team with 30/441/2. Those are solid numbers for a role player, a second or third option, but thats ridiculous for a team's leading receiving. Yes, Virginia Tech operates under a very conservative offense and only scored 30 points twice last season but Jordan Shipley had 89 receptions last season which is more than the three receivers reception totals combined. Taylor must become a better passer and the sophomore trio of receivers must prove their worth for the Hokies to compete against teams with good offenses.

Key Game - 9/5/09 Alabama
This game could dictate the Hokies season and is just the beginning of one of the best non-conference schedules in the country (Bama, Marshall, Nebraska, and East Carolina). Alabama will have a strong running game, led by Mark Ingram, and have a game breaker at receiver in Julio Jones. Despite a new quarterback, Alabama should be able to put some points on the board, but will Virginia Tech be able to match them. Alabama returns 9 starters from a top 10 defense last season. Alabama was second in rush defense last season, which should neutralize Evans. A passing game would be the best option against Alabama, but thats what Virginia Tech lacks.

Key Player - Tyrod Taylor
Taylor must develop his passing game if the Hokies want to win an ACC Championship for the third year in a row. Taylor has proven to the nation that he can be solid on the ground, but can he become a true dual-threat? Darren Evans will be keyed on by opposing defenses after his breakout freshman season and also Taylor running ability will try to be contained. This should open up the passing game and allow for a lot of single coverage plays when playing teams that play man defense. Tyrod Taylor was a highly ranked player coming out of high school, but now he has to prove his worth.

Impact Freshman - DJ Coles

Predicted ACC Finish - 2nd (Coastal)

Top 5 Players
1. RB Darren Evans
2. DE Jason Worilds
3. OL Sergio Render
4. CB Stephan Virgil
5. FS Kam Chancellor

Sunday, June 14, 2009

ACC - Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech
Skinny - This is my first "going out on a limb" pick. Georgia Tech finished last season 9-4 with only 3 losses in the ACC. Thats a pretty impressive feat considering the complete overhaul of the offense by new coach Paul Johnson. This can be seen as a two-way street. For one, one can say that the first time a team sees an offense is the hardest to defend it, but on the other hand the Georgia Tech players now have a full year of experience in the system and can execute better. I'm leaning towards Georgia Tech taking a step forward instead of back with the return of QB Josh Nesbitt, back Jonathan Dwyer, and back Roddy Jones. Besides the bowl game, Georgia Tech lost to Virginia Tech by 3, Virginia by 7, and North Carolina in their only bad ACC loss by 21. The North Carolina loss was a result of losing the turnover battle 3-0. I feel Virginia Tech is being overrated and North Carolina has farther to go than Georgia Tech does in terms of two programs on the rise.

Strength - Backfield
Nesbitt, Dwyer, and Jones all return for Georgia Tech and opposing defenses better be ready for an intense running game. The line returns the three interior lineman, which all returning lineman are extremely helpful in a type of offense not typical to the college football game. Last year the lineman struggled in a change of systems, but that didn't prevent Dwyer and Jones from having big seasons on the ground. With a more experienced and seasoned line, expect even bigger rushing outputs from the two backs. The return of Nesbitt is also crucial to the team's success, as the team didn't play as well when he was injured. The barely beat Gardner-Webb 10-7 as a result of his injury. The offense should be able to improve on their 74th ranked scoring output from last season, but stat watchers should also keep in mind a triple option offense eats considerable minutes off the clock, shortens the game, and as a result allows for fewer plays and statistics.

Weakness - Defensive Line
The Defensive Line loses Vance Walker, Michael Johnson, and Darryl Richard (Johnson landing on last seasons first team All-ACC list and Walker on the second team), but returns second team All-ACC defensive end Derrick Morgan. Its past Morgan where the question marks begin. Losing three potential NFL lineman is never easy. Games are won and lost in the trenches and defense starts with the DTs, as the DTs give way to pressure by the DEs, which opens up the play for the linebackers, and makes the job easier for the defensive backs as the quarterback has less time to dissect the defense. Ben Anderson seems slotted for one tackle spot, while the other should be a battle between freshman T.J. Barnes and sophomore Jason Peters. The other end spot appears to be Robert Hall. If the 3 that step into the starting positions prove their worth, it could be a big season for the Jackets potentially ending in an ACC title.

Key Game - 10/10/09 @Florida State
A win over Florida State would give the Yellow Jackets some confidence going into a game the following week against division foe Virginia Tech and the next week against a team that beat them last year in Virginia. Georgia Tech must take 2 out of 3 of these games, if not all 3 to have a chance at the ACC championship game.

Key Player - Ben Anderson
The former South Aiken player must step up on the defensive line despite his small frame (6-2 274). Replacing Vance Walker will not be an easy task, but it is necesary if the Yellow Jackets want to remain in the top 30 nationally in scoring and total defense. Ben Anderson will not have the luxury of playing next to an experienced tackle, so his job will not be made any easier.

Impact Freshman - Stephen Hill

Predicted ACC finish - 1st (Coastal)

Top 5 Players
1. BB Jonathan Dwyer
2. S Morgan Burnett
3. DE Derrick Morgan
4. AB Roddy Jones
5. LB Sedric Griffen

Big 12 - Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State
Skinny - Oklahoma State was the best team in college football last season to come in fourth in their division. That place in the standing was not indicative of the quality team they had. Sure they lost to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl, but Oregon had a really solid offense led by Masoli. In a league that boasts Colt McCoy/Jordan Shipley and Sam Bradford/DeMarco Murray/Chris Brown, Oklahoma may have the best QB/RB/WR punch in Robinson/Hunter/Bryant. Hunter is returning from a 1st team All-American season and Bryant will probably be one this season after being first team Big 12 last season. The team returns 5 of 7 starters in the front 7 on defense, but their secondary will be rebuilding for the most part.

Strength - Offensive Firepower
Quarterback Zac Robinson would get a lot more credit in other leagues, but he's overshadowed by McCoy and Bradford in the Big 12 and at times Baylor QB Robert Griffen gets more credit than he does. All he did last year was throw for 3064 yards with a 25-10 TD-INT ratio. His primary target and 1st team All American Dez Bryant had 87/1480/19 last year, which means he accounted for half of Robinson's output. As good a player as Bryant is, Oklahoma State's running back Kendall Hunter is just as good. As a sophomore he ran for 1555 yds/16 TD and should be a legitimate Heisman candidate this season if the two new guards gel with the 3 returning starters on the offensive line. Last season, Oklahoma State was 9th in scoring offense, 6th in total yards, 8th in rushing, and 38th in passing. One of the nation's most productive offenses last year should only get better this season with 7 returning starters and all the stars back.

Weakness - Defensive Backs
Perrish Cox, a corner, is the only returning defensive back for the Cowboys in an area that is so important in the Big 12. In a pass happy league, a good secondary will give a team a legit chance in games that are mostly shootouts. Oklahoma State has three returning senior starters at linebacker and a veteran defensive line that needs to put pressure on the quarterbacks to take the pressure off the inexperienced secondary. The defensive backs for the Cowboys can't get much worse from last season when the team ranked 109th in pass defense allowing 267.7 yards per game. If the defensive backfield comes together, the Cowboys could take the Big 12 South title away from Oklahoma and Texas.

Key Game - 9/5/09 Georgia
When Georgia and Oklahoma State scheduled this game it probably seemed like a great schedule by Bulldog fans, being a game against a BCS opponent but also very winnable. Mike Gundy has turned this Oklahoma State program around and they could send a statement to the nation if they could start the season a big win over a perennial SEC powerhouse. Oklahoma State has a very legit shot at being a National Championship contender and this would be the way to start the campaign on top.

Key Player - DeMarcus Conner
DeMarcus Conner has to develop into a legitimate receiving threat to complement Dez Bryant. Oklahoma State lost two experienced receivers to off the field issues this off-season, so it will be up to Conner to step up in their place. The Cowboy offense could be lethal if some of the pressure was taken off Bryant. Conner only had 3 catches last season, but with the loss of those two receivers and tight end Pettigrew it's his time to shine.

Impact Freshman - Daytawion Lowe

Predicted Big 12 Finish - 3rd (South)

Top 5 Players
1. RB Kendall Hunter
2. WR Dez Bryant
3. QB Zac Robinson
4. LT Russell Okung
5. LB Orie Lemon

Big 12 - Texas

Texas
Skinny - The difference in the Red River Rivalry is very minimal this year and should come down to how the teams play each other, unless of course Oklahoma State has something to say about that. Colt McCoy could be the best quarterback in the country and may be the reason Tebow or Bradford are not the second two time winners of the coveted trophy. Jordan Shipley returns for the Longhorns giving McCoy a go-to target. Texas' achilles heel in the Texas Tech game, the secondary, has a full year of experience under their belt and should be better. The team has a legit shot at the national championship, but the must gain some offensive balance first by finding a running back that can gain more yards on the ground than McCoy.

Strength - Colt McCoy
McCoy was my first team All-Big 12 quarterback last season. Keep in mind the feat that is in a conference with quarterbacks of the names of Bradford, Harrell, Robinson, Reesing, Robinson, Griffen, and Daniel. McCoy returns with a ridiculous statline from last season.
76.7 completion percentage
3859 passing yards
34-8 TD-INT ratio
On top of those numbers he is also the team's leading returning rusher with 561 yards and 11 TDs. McCoy should be able to replicate those numbers behind an experienced line that includes two All-Big 12 second teamers from last season (Ulatoski and Hall), but also a total of 4 returning starters. McCoy also has his favorite target from last year back in Jordan Shipley, who had over 1000 receiving yards last season. McCoy will be at the top of many Heisman lists and rightfully so, but can the rest of the team help him enough to get them to where McCoy wants them to?

Weakness - Running Back
Its obvious what this team lacks, a proven back. McCoy led the team in rushing last season and somebody must step up to relieve some of the pressure off McCoy. Having McCoy rushing for 561 yards means putting him in harms way and a McCoy injury would be devastating to this team. The three backs with the best chance of stepping into into this role are Vondrell McGee, Cody Johnson, and Foswhitt Whittaker. They each had a few hundred yards last year, but a running back by committee is not the approach this offense needs to take. A two running back system would be fine, but they both must be capable of 1000 yards seasons or at least close to that. McCoy is an All-American, but not a miracle maker.

Key Game - 10/31/09 @Oklahoma State
The Oklahoma game precedes this game and if Texas could somehow get past them, they face one more obstacle before a trip to the Big 12 Championship game. Oklahoma State returns a lot of firepower behind the offensive trio of Robinson, Hunter, and Bryant. The Texas defense must step up to the challenge if they want to take this game.

Key Player - Cody Johnson
He probably has the best chance of being the go to back after rushing for 12 TDs last year. He must step up his yardage output and prove he can play away from the goal line. He's 255 pounds, so his strength will be running between the tackles which is a good thing for a team that likes to spread out the defenses with their passing game. He would be the complement Texas needs to McCoy. If Johnson steps up look for Texas to be in the thick of the National Title hunt.

Impact Freshman - Chris Whaley

Predicted Big 12 finish - 2nd (South)

Top 5 Players
1. QB Colt McCoy
2. DE/LB Sergio Kindle
3. WR Jordan Shipley
4. C Chris Hall
5. T Adam Ulatoski

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Big 12 - Oklahoma

Oklahoma

Skinny - Oklahoma gets to try again this year after losing the National Championship game to Florida. Heisman winner Sam Bradford returns to school along with running backs Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray, so the there won't be any shortage of firepower on offense. Unless of course the line can't rebuild. Three Oklahoma offensive lineman made my All-Big 12 team last season and all three are gone. Second teamer Trent Williams is the lone returner for the Sooners, so the key to Oklahoma's season will be the play in the trenches.

Strength - Tight End
Most people would assume either quarterback or running back would be the strength of this team, but Jermaine Gresham plays like a man among boys from the tight end position. He had 66 receptions, 950 yards, and 14 TDs last year alone. Those are stellar numbers for a receiver let alone a position that has more blocking duties. He can also be nicknamed Mr. Clutch.
Here's three statlines from the season. (rec/yards/tds)
9/158/2
8/82
8/62/2
One might guess those are from some games against teams like Sam Houston State or Idaho State (no offense to those teams), but those games, respectively, are Oklahoma State, the Big 12 Championship game, and the National Championship game. So 25 out of his 66 catches, well more than 1/3, were in three of the biggest games of the season. One might think, I left the Texas game out because he faltered, but no he didn't. He had a solid day with 5/90/1. If there's a player that needs to touch the ball with the game on the line, it's Gresham.

Weakness - Offensive Line
This offense has the stars to become the greatest offense to ever play the game of college football, but it lacks the experience up front. Teams can adjust to new receivers or running backs if they have the talent, but experience is so important for offensive lineman. The ability to gel and know where your linemates are is crucial to a successful line. Trent Williams will be the leader and luckily for Bradford he will be blocking his blind side at left tackle. The left side of the line should be fine as Williams is joined by Brian Simmons, who started 2 games last year and played 421 snaps. Ben Habern, coming off a medical redshirt, is only a freshman but in his limited action he played solid. The inexperience comes from the right side and the projected starters according to SoonerSports.com are Stephen Good and Cory Brandon. If the line can come together, they may put up 75 points on a Big 12 opponent. The line will control how much the offense can succeed.

Key Game - 10/17/09 v. Texas (Dallas)
After all the controversy with the BCS last year, Texas is going to come into this game looking for revenge, even though this is always a tough game. This game may very well put a team in the driver's seat for a National Championship game birth. This game may come down to who plays better at QB, McCoy or Bradford.

Key Player - Ben Habern
The redshirt freshman center only weighs 275, which is on the small side. However, he was a bigtime player out of high school, being a consensus top 5 center prospect. He also showed his potential in his limited action before an ankle injury ended his season. Habern plays a critical position in center and he will be called upon to step up as a freshman and lead this inexperiened line. If he develops into a bigtime player, Oklahoma has a very real shot at a National Championship.

Impact Freshman - Javon Harris

Predicted Big 12 Finish - 1st (South)

Top 5 Players
1. Jermaine Gresham
2. Sam Bradford
3. Gerald McCoy
4. Trent Williams
5. Chris Brown

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

SEC - Alabama

Alabama

Skinny - Last season was almost a dream come true for Bama fans. Their team seemed to finally turn the corner for good for the first time since Gene Stalling led the Crimson Tide to their last National Championship. The foundation of last year's team remains with Cody and McClain returning to lead a stellar defense. John Parker Wilson is gone, as is Glen Coffee. While the quarterback situation isn't secure yet, the running back position is as sophomore Mark Ingram returns after a great season for a freshman back in the SEC. The Alabama program is making its way back to where it was in the Bear Bryant era, but there is work to be done if they want to get there. Alabama avoids both Florida and Georgia, but their opening game against non-conference opponent Virginia Tech could dictate Bama's national title aspirations.

Strength - Terrence Cody
Terrence Cody is the true definition of clogging up the middle (he's listed at 6'5"/365 on the official Alabama website). Cody's size and ability requires double teams opposing lines, which allows Alabama to thrive in the 3-4 defense. The linebackers are able to control the line of scrimmage and push the offense backwards. Cody's presence is what affects the game, not his statistics. Cody had only half a sack last season, but its what he does in the middle that opens up the play for the rest of the defense. With Deaderick returning at one end position and Washington getting experience in all 14 games last season at defensive end, I expect Cody's sack output to be about 3 this season. Defensive tackles aren't known for their gaudy stats, but they sure are appreciated by the rest of the team. Games are won in the trenches and that is where Bama will thrive on the defensive side of the ball.

Weakness - Quarterback
Greg McElroy will have the inside track to the starting position for the Tide, as long as he can hold off redshirt freshman Star Jackson and true freshman AJ McCarron. McElroy only threw 11 passes last year as Wilson's back up and only has 20 career attempts, so the experience is not there. McCarron showed some flaws in the Army All-American game practices and may be a bit raw, so he is expected to take a redshirt year before he challenges McElroy and Jackson for the starting position. Jackson is reported to have 4.5 speed from various media outlets and should provide a good contrast to McElroy and it will be up to Saban on what type of quarterback Alabama will use this season. Whoever gains control will have a very good back in Ingram and a high caliber receiver in Julio Jones.

Key Game - 10/10/09 @Ole Miss
This game will have a big influence on who wins the SEC West and who clinches the coveted spot in the SEC Championship game. Alabama will have their hands full playing this game on the road against a good quarterback in Jevan Snead, but the Bama quarterback should have enough experience before this game considering the opener against Virginia Tech to be ready for the competition.

Key Player - Mark Ingram
Ingram was very, very good as a freshman and was a great compliment to the now departed Glen Coffee. He had 728 yards and 12 TDs as a freshman and can only build on those numbers this year as the feature back. However, other teams may key on the run considering the inexperience at quarterback and Ingram loses one of the top lineman in the game last year in Smith. If Ingram becomes the superstar he has the potential to be it may be a long season for Alabama opponents.

Impact Freshman - Trent Richardson

Predicted SEC finish - 1st (West)

Top 5 Players
1. LB Rolando McClain
2. DT Terrence Cody
3. WR Julio Jones
4. RB Mark Ingram
5. G Mike Johnson

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Pac 10 - USC

USC

Skinny - The Trojans are coming off a season where they feel they were the best team in the nation after thrashing Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Although they knew they were going to lose their stellar linebacking core, hopes were initially sky high for this team behind QB Mark Sanchez. Well maybe the Rose Bowl wasn't a complete win as Sanchez's undeniable performance propelled him higher on the draft boards. Following bowl season, Bradford and McCoy both decided to return to school meaning the only top QB on NFL draft boards was Stafford. Sanchez jumped ship and is now in NFL camps. USC on the other hand has to regroup and shuffle out their QB situtation between Corp, Barkley, and Mustain. Can the Trojans rebuild their defense and settle on a qb?

Strength - Taylor Mays
Mays is a special player, no doubt about it. A physical specimen and freakish athlete, Mays will be the definitive leader of the Trojan defense entering the 2009 season. Mays plays like a 4th linebacker and may just be the hardest hitter in the nation (Evidence; he can't even spare his teammate). USC loses its entire LB corps, so the pressure incured by the USC defense probably will not be as high this year and it will be key for Mays to punish the players that get past the new unit. At 230 pounds Mays may not seem to be that fast, but he had the fastest 40 on the Trojan team last year that included Joe McKnight. He easily could have gone pro after last season and would have been a 1st round pick, but by making a decision that I love to see he decided to play one more year of the best sport around. Even if one doesn't like USC, they have to appreciate the special player Mays is.

Weakness - Linebacker experience
USC had four linebackers taken in the draft (Maualuga, Cushing, Matthews, and Maiava). Keep in mind the USC defense was tops in the country last year and the offense was able to spend a lot of time on the field, limiting experience for the second unit. According the Rivals.com, Michael Morgan, Malcolm Smith, and Chris Galippo are currently first team on the depth chart. The trio only recorded 54 tackles between the three last year. The potential and depth is there if they can't handle the big time. Galippo is a former 5 star and is one of 7 4-stars or better in the last 3 recruiting classes according to Scout.com.

Key Game - 10/31/09 @Oregon
Yes, the Ohio State is the marquee game on the schedule, but the Oregon game is the most important. Undefeated teams are rare nowadays in BCS leagues, so an early season loss to Ohio State, while upsetting, would be possible to regain positioning in the MNC hunt. The Oregon game is in the heart of the Pac 10 schedule and is critical to USC winning the Pac 10 and clinching at least a Rose Bowl bid. It will be a difficult task as Autzen Stadium is always a hard place to play, as it is arguably the loudest in the country.

Key Player - Joe McKnight
Its time for McKnight to step up and be the player everyone was touting him to be in high school. Ever since Bush/White, USC has been running the backfield by committee and they need someone to step up and become a feature back. After two years of experience, the opportunity is there for the taking for McKnight. Being a feature back would take the pressure off the new quarterback that will also have to adjust to the loss of Patrick Turner and the transfer of Vidal Hazelton (Damian Williams will help relieve the pain as he is the definite number 1 receiver).

Impact Freshman - Byron Moore

Predicted Pac 10 finish - 1st

Top 5 Players
1. S Taylor Mays
2. C Kristofer O'Dowd
3. WR Damian Williams
4. DE Everson Griffen
5. RB Stafon Johnson

SEC - Florida

Florida
Skinny - Coming off a National Championship always puts a target on a team, but with the return of superman himself, Tim Tebow, the Gators remain the best team in the land. The entire defense is back for Florida, a defense that I might add held Sam Bradford and the balanced and explosive Oklahoma offense to 14 points in the game's biggest stage. Florida will again have to play a rigorous SEC schedule, but if they maintain focus they can definitely repeat as MNC champs.

Strength - Quarterback
There are so many choices here its hard to come up with a final answer. A member from each defensive unit last year made my first team All-SEC list (Black, Dunlap, and Spikes), the Pouncey twins return to anchor the offensive line, and the speed at running back is undeniable. But this team feeds off, not just the incredible play of Tebow, but the passion and firepower he instills in the team. His speech last year after the Ole Miss loss summarizes why he is so important to the team. He willed the team to a National Championship after the team's lone loss and beat two very good teams Alabama and Oklahoma in consecutive games to end the season on the highest note. Tebow loses his sidekick Percy Harvin this season, so it should be interesting to see how he is replaced. Jeff Demps has the speed to replace Harvin, but will he be as big an influence in the passing game as he is more a running back than Harvin's hybrid?

Weakness - Wide Receiver
This isn't so much of a weakness, but more a place the team must prove themselves. Aaron Hernandez will probably lead the team receiving from the tight end position, which there is nothing wrong with that considering Hernandez's abilities but to compliment the running game there must be legimitate outside threats. Carl Moore and Riley Cooper, both seniors, will join sophomore Deonte Thompson in the quest to replace Louis Murphy and Harvin. Cooper and Thompson had respectable backup numbers last year 18/261/3 and 18/269/3, respectively, but they take that number 1 and number 2 role for the Gators' offense to be as productive as last season.

Key Game - 10/10/09 @LSU
I almost put the SEC championship game considering Florida gets lucky avoiding Alabama and Ole Miss from the west division. I believe Jordan Jefferson will have control of the QB position by this time for LSU and Charles Scott may be the best back in the SEC. Playing a night game in Death Valley could be a tough task for the Gators if they are not prepared.

Key Player - Deonte Thompson
The sophomore wide receiver has the chance to become the Gators next star receiver for years to come. The Glades Central alum has good speed, but lacks big time game experience. He didn't accumulate stats in Florida's three biggest games last year against Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma. Thompson needs to give Tebow a threat to compliment Hernandez.

Impact Freshman - Andre Debose

Predicted SEC finish - 1st (East)

Top 5 Players
1. QB Tim Tebow
2. LB Brandon Spikes
3. DE Carlos Dunlap
4. S Ahmad Black
5. TE Aaron Hernandez

Monday, June 8, 2009

Big Ten - Ohio State

Ohio State

Skinny - The Terrelle Pryor era in Columbus is well under way, but this will be Pryor's first season of real pressure. Without Beanie Wells complementing him or Todd Boeckman backing him up to add some stability, Pryor will be expected to lead the offense and must remain healthy for the team to compete. The Buckeyes arguably have the best talent in the Big Ten, but can Tressel and crew finally win the primetime games that they have been missing the last few years.

Strength - Safety
Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell.
Coleman, a second-team All Big Ten member last season, is the anchor to the defense, as he is the team's leading returning tackler. Coleman led the team with 4 picks last season, while Russell had 2. In a league that doesn't have the best quarterbacks, the duo should be able to cause mistakes in the passing game, while also being solid in run support. The team lost its two top linebackers (Laurinaitis and Freeman), so it will be the job of Coleman and Russell to quarterback the defense for the Buckeyes, while Thaddeus Gibson and Cameron Heyward wreak havoc on the league's quarterbacks from the defensive end position.

Weakness - Coaching
Yes, Jim Tressel has a National Championship
Yes, Ohio State has won outright or shared the conference title since 2005
Yes, the team constantly finishes near the top of the national rankings
But what team has fallen the hardest on the national stage? That would be the Ohio State University. Last season they lost their three biggest games against USC, Penn State, and Texas. The USC was a 35-3 massacre. The previous year was the loss to LSU, the year before that was the 41-14 blowout to Florida. Both those games were for the National Championship.
Tressel's last bowl win was over Notre Dame in 2005, which is much too long for a team that is constantly in the spotlight like OSU. According to those "experts" at the recruiting services, Ohio State has the talent. To further support the "experts," Ohio State has been sending players to the NFL, so it's not like the talent isn't there. Ohio State looked good against Texas, but good is not good enough to beat the elite teams. Tressel has to do something to get Ohio State back over that hump.

Key Game - 9/13/09 USC
Ohio State must show the country something in order to regain some of the respect they have lost for themselves in terms of the media in the last couple years and to help the Big Ten conference as a whole. This is the Buckeye's chance to show the country something in an early season match-up while USC is still trying out a new QB and reloading their defense.

Key Player - Dan Herron
Terrelle Pryor is the obvious choice here, but he gained invaluable experience last year leading the team for most of the season. Herron had 439 yds/6 TDs last year on the ground when he played while Beanie was hurt, but he must prove this season he can carry the load the entire season. Pryor is a mobile quarterback and will get yards on the ground, but the Buckeyes need a durable back so Pryor doesn't take a beating considering all the marbles are in one bag with Pryor.

Impact Freshman -Dorian Bell

Predicted Big Ten Finish - 2nd

Top 5 Players

1. S Kurt Coleman
2. QB Terrelle Pryor
3. DE Thaddeus Gibson
4. OL Justin Boren
5. WR Ray Small

Big Ten - Penn State

Penn State

Skinny - After falling short of a possible National Championship bid compliments of a 24-23 loss to Iowa, the Nittany Lions went on to win the Big Ten title but got embarrassed in the Rose Bowl. Can they compete for a second Big Ten title in two years with a new secondary, wide receiver corps, and a remodeled offensive line?

Strength - Linebacker
Penn State returns All Big-Ten LB Navorro Bowman, a freakish athlete, and regains Sean Lee from an ACL injury that kept him from playing last season. Both players have All-American potential, but the key to the LB unit is the third backer. Sophomore Michael Mauti appears to have the position if Lee makes the suspected move to MLB, while the former starting MLB Josh Hull and LB Nate Stupar will challenge for the last spot. Mauti has drawn comparisons to former Penn State LB Dan Connor.

Weakness - Secondary
The Nittany Lions lose all four starters from a unit that got eaten alive by Mark Sanchez and the USC Trojans in Pasadena. Safety Drew Astorino played significant minutes last year and may have been Penn State's best defensive back last season in the role of nickelback. CB AJ Wallace was a highly touted recruit, but can he finally rid himself of the nagging injuries and become the corner everyone billed him out to be? CB Knowledge Timmons has the speed, but lacks the focus necessary for a shutdown corner. D'Anton Lynn figures to challenge Timmons for the starting role, and while he may have a bright future he may not be ready for the big time. True freshman Gerald Hodges appears to be in similar mold to Taylor Mays, but if he isn't ready in pass coverage Nick Sukay or Andrew Dailey will have to step up for the Lions to compete for the repeat.

Key Game - 11/7/09 Ohio State
Both teams have a very good shot at being undefeated in conference play for this late season match-up, and with the Nittany Lions not having a marquee non-conference match-up this game could be the biggest potential stumbling block in an attempt for a National Championship run.

Key Player - AJ Wallace
If Wallace can become the shutdown corner that Penn State fans expected of him on signing day in 2006, he would take a lot of pressure off a unit that should be attacked time and time again during the season. If Wallace can force teams to respect the pass defense and make them run the ball more, the defense can thrive on its strength in the front 7, especially up the middle. Luckily for the Lions, the Big Ten does not have a strong stable of QBs and the best one happens to be on this team.

Impact Freshman - S Gerald Hodges

Predicted Big Ten Finish - 1st

Top 5 players
1. LB Navorro Bowman
2. DT Jared Odrick
3. QB Daryll Clark
4. LB Sean Lee
5. RB Evan Royster

Hello World

This is my new blog created to further show my love of the great sport of college football. This blog will probably have a lot of Penn State info, but I'm going to try to make this as much as an entire college football blog as I can. Last year I used a notebook to keep all my college football stuff, but a blog is a cleaner and better way to gather and share my thoughts. I'm going to start with a short preview of each BCS team and if I have the time I might go into some of the smaller conference teams. After I do a short preview, I'll give my all conference teams and predictions just like I did last year in my notebook.